Dolphins Training Camp MUST Get This Right

The New NFL Cycle Sweet spot DEMANDS Three Things

The Miami Dolphins’ 2026 training camp is here, and I’m feeling a mix of nerves and excitement I haven’t felt in a long time. I don’t know about you, but I feel young again. Of course, every new season has a way of convincing us this might be the one. That’s part of being a fan. Hope always shows up before the first whistle. But hope only carries you so far.

Before the cheering starts, there are questions that need answers.

I’ll be watching the offensive line like a hawk. Miami must finally run the football, build a credible play-action game, and whether this defense can hold up against the run. Those three aspects of the game, more than anything else, will tell me whether the Dolphins are ready to take advantage of the sweet spot in today’s NFL.

Fun ball is Dead, Long Live Physical Football

What actually wins football games in 2025? The numbers tell a pretty compelling story on the teams that finished Top 20 in rush attempts, second-down play-action EPA, and run defense. Not Top 5. Not Top 10. Just not in the bottom third of the league.

Only 11 of the 32 NFL teams finished inside the, so it wasn’t easy. But it also wasn’t a coincidence.

This is why my evaluation says if Miami can even get close in these categories, then they have a chance to be the low expectations.

Rushing Atts, 2nd Down PA & Run Defense Value

Let’s dig in: Second down has become the money down for play action, and consistently generating positive EPA there proved to be a stronger indicator of offensive success than on any other down.

Of course, we can’t view those numbers in a vacuum, football is far too interconnected for that. But one trend kept surfacing: teams that ran the football effectively–especially on 1st Down–were far more likely to create productive second-down play-action opportunities. And the converse, stopping the run–especially on 1st Down–were far more likely to get the offense off the field. The two go together in today’s NFL like Dan Marino and a pass play.

It really is that simple: Run the damn football, and good things tend to happen on both sides of the field.

If a team rushed for just four yards on 1st Down in 2025, a defensive coordinator had a 58.8% likelihood of calling middle field closed formation. This means on 2nd Down the defense is leaving itself exposed in some way.

In Cover 1, the core weakness is against the deep pass with a single high safety and on the deep boundaries with the line of scrimmage focus.

If they call Cover 3–less likely–then they are exposing themselves to the run game by with three deep defenders and in the passing game flood concepts, curls, 10–15-yard seam attacks, and more.

All of this is a perfect setting for a play action pass.

Also, when you run the football, the clock keeps moving. That means your defense spends more time
catching its breath on the sideline instead of chasing receivers all over the field. A rested defense close
games. You can bet that a tired defense struggles to finish them.

So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at those 11 teams and see how they fared in 2025.

Seahawks, Patriots, & Jaguars

All three teams posted Top 10 in all three categories, except the Patriots who were 13th in run defense. This was a big reason why the Seahawks, Patriots, and Jaguars enjoyed outstanding seasons, and two punched their ticket to the Super Bowl.

That’s a pretty convincing starting endorsement of this formula.

Texans, Rams, and 49ers

Two teams in this next group advanced to the Divisional Round, while the third reached the NFC Championship Game. Interesting how the Rams were only middle to back of the pack in all three, but there strongest was play action on 2nd Down. A lot of this had to do with their trend setting highest 13 Personnel usage in the league working through that 2nd Down play action.

While not quite the top group, this is another collection of teams that made deep postseason runs.

Chargers & Eagles

Neither the Eagles or Chargers made an extended playoff run, but both finished with winning records and earned Wild Card berths. Even outside the league’s elite, the connection between these three categories and winning football remained strong. And if you notice, there strongest production came on 2nd Down play action passes in which they ranked Top 10.

Packers, Ravens, & Buccaneers

This is where things get interesting.

The Ravens and Buccaneers both finished with eight wins and narrowly missed the postseason. The
Packers, meanwhile, reached the NFC Championship Game.

And that’s the team that catches my attention because of who was there. Jon-Eric Sullivan helped build that roster, and Jeff Hafley helped coach it. If I’m looking for a blueprint of what this Dolphins regime wants to become, Green Bay is where I’m starting.

Green Bay South? More Like 70’s Dolphins Football!

Before I dive into the Packers, let me point out one thing. 

Not a single team on this list completely fell apart. Every season has injuries, lucky breaks, and bad bounces, but these three categories kept showing up on teams that were playing meaningful football in December. That’s not an accident. These categories appear to be the NFL’s current sweet spot for sustained success.

Now, as for our Dolphins, Sullivan and Hafley spent the offseason putting Miami in position to succeed in all three of these areas: rush attempts, second-down play-action passing, and stopping the run.

The addition of Kayden Proctor is a big one—no pun intended. Bringing back Aaron Brewer, moving Jonah Savaiinaea back to his natural position on the right side, adding a true Y tight end and quality blocker in Will Kacmarek, and signing Jamaree Salyer all point toward one thing: building a more physical offense.

But it doesn’t stop in the trenches: Malik Willis gives Miami another piece of the puzzle with his ability to get outside the pocket, extend plays, and throw accurately on the move. That’s exactly the kind of quarterback who can punish defenses once they start respecting the run.

Phins Defense is Aiming for the Sweet Spot Too

The same goes for the defense. Jeff Hafley’s one-gap system is built to let athletes be athletes. Kenneth Grant and Chop Robinson won’t be asked to sit and catch blocks. They’ll be attacking up field and using
their athleticism.

Behind them, Jordyn Brooks and rookie Jacob Rodriguez should benefit as well. Instead of spending every snap stacking and shedding offensive linemen, they’ll be free to see the runner, shoot the gap, and make the tackle. That’s exactly how this defense is designed to play. And to take it one step further, this linebacker group with the addition of Kyle Lewis is positioning itself to handle those problematic 2nd Down play action calls with a loaded cover group in the middle.

I don’t know how the 2026 Dolphins will perform in these three categories, but I do know they’ve built this roster to attack them. I’m also pretty damn sure of this: if Miami finishes in the Top 20—or even comes close—in rush attempts, second-down play-action passing, and stopping the run, you can bet with the best pay per head that a Top 5 draft pick or another miserable season won’t in the cards.

Now all that’s left is to watch, evaluate, and find out what this football team is really made of.

Go Phins!!!